Direct Gaussian process predictive regressions with mixed frequency data.

Abstract. We develop Bayesian machine learning methods for mixed frequency data. This involves handling frequency mismatches and specifying functional relationships between (possibly many) predictors and low frequency dependent variables. We use Gaussian Processes (GPs) in direct nonlinear predictive regressions, and compress higher frequency variables in a structured way. This yields a set of kernels for GPs with distinct properties and implications. We evaluate the proposed framework in an out-of-sample exercise focusing on quarterly US GDP growth and inflation. Our approach leverages high-dimensional mixed frequency data in a computationally efficient way, and offers robustness and gains in predictive accuracy along several dimensions.

An earlier version circulated as Nowcasting with mixed frequency data using Gaussian processes.